> These trucks are more expensive, require infrastructure that doesn’t exist, charge slower, and don’t go anywhere near as far as diesel trucks. And no fleets in North America are ready to figure out converting a 2000 mile long haul over the road route into 5 400 mile EV relays.
I see this all or nothing argument when discussing new stuff. Same thing was said about passenger cars and quoted as one of the main reasons EVs would never catch on. It looks like a chicken and egg problem until you look at it less idealistically and more pragmatically. If you watch the presentation (and I hope everyone commenting here did that first), it's most likely that the charging infra is part of the package fleet operators buy. They showed battery+solar backed Megachargers that the fleet operators are likely to be using for the near term. With this in mind, those companies that are currently buying these trucks in high numbers, are also definitely buying the charging infra with it. So with this context in mind, charging infra isn't a problem right now. And just like Superchargers for passenger cars, they will only ever increase in numbers.
Slow charging is only a temporary problem and as evolution of Superchargers has made quote evident to date.
From my understanding of US laws and human biology, no one can drive 2000 miles non-stop without taking multiple breaks in tens of minutes each. In fact, Tesla Semi's range is 500 miles because it's right at the edge of how long a driver can safely drive non-stop and right before they are legally required to take a break, during which time they can charge the truck.
If anyone is interested in the opinion of an actual CDL holder, I think the technology has amazing promise and will eventually be adopted for many kind of CDL driving. I used to work for a public utility company (water/waster water), and we had a fleet of about a dozen or so dump trucks then we used whenever we had to dig something up. These were big machines, full size tractors with a dump bed instead of a fifth wheel (the mechanism that semi tractors normally have installed to tow trailers). They also served to tow flatbed trailers loaded with a backhoe, out to the dig site.
Now these machines never left our service area. They were always parked in the same lot every night. Putting in charging infrastructure in that lot would be trivial, and would almost certainly cost less than maintaining our own diesel storage and pumping infrastructure (which we did do because it saved us so much of our working day to be able to fuel everything up in the morning instead of having to drive to a truck stop before starting the work day).
A lot of trucking is local or regional. Those will be the markets that EV makes the most sense for. Where the trucks normally go back to the same lot every night, and the owners can cheaply put in slow charge infrastructure. Could we get EV trucking working for long-haul (a kind of trucking I've also done in the past)? Sure. It will require fast charge infrastructure though. 500 miles is a lot of range, but in long haul trucking, very often you operate in two driver teams, and your truck is always moving. Fast charging could solve that too, but perhaps the solution is to reduce the number of miles that freight spends on the road. Multi-modal shipping could be expanded. Use trains to cover large distance, and try to keep road transportation of freight to the regional level and local level. This is already an option that exists. Multi-modal is already a sub-industry in trucking. This seems like the most logical option to me, but I'm not an expert. Just somebody who has lived the industry for a few years.
Thanks for your perspective. There are lots of people who like to shoot down technologies simply because they're ignorant of all the scenarios that exist. They see only one possible use (e.g. long haul trucking), correctly identify that the technology won't work in that scenario, then proceed to dismiss it entirely because they're unaware of the myriad of other applications.
The problem with these people is that they will go to great lengths to explain to you why your technology won't work in their specific application and feel smug because they think they've cleverly identified a flaw that you didn't think of.
Even slow overnight charging will have to be pretty beefy for these trucks and their batteries though. They're going to expend significantly more energy than your commuter car so they'll have to suck down a lot of juice overnight.
In the areas that companies build their truck lots with diesel depot's there is typically significant power available. The US electrical grid has expanded at a fairly steady rate. I don't see why it wouldn't be able to handle a continued growth rate via electric trucks.
Just to put some numbers out there, the semi battery pack is probably around 850kWh-1MWh. Imagine if this gets drained every day and a company has 10 trucks, the trucks have roughly 10-12 hours to charge (~6pm to 6am). So you'd need 1MW of electrical capacity.
This is equivalent to about 20 modern US homes (200A*240VAC) and not that crazy in the scheme of things. A medium sized factory in the US probably has a grid connection around this size depending on what they do.
The grid also has lots of excess overnight capacity. From the California Independent system operator data, the state has 42,000 MW of total capacity. Overnight demand is below 23,000 MW for much of the night. Even if we exclude the top 20% of capacity as too expensive or polluting, we still have 11,000MW of available capacity today in the overnight window in California alone.
I wonder how much longer the excess in CA will be there. As we are moving more and more towards solar we need more storage to handle shadow and the loads at night.
It's certainly doable but it's not going to be cheap at all. That's at 1300 amp service of 480v 3-phase just for charging plus the chargers to handle that ~100KW of load per truck, to provide that power you're likely going to have the external charger setup instead of just one on the truck itself and those aren't cheap.
If the numbers work, they'll do it. It's not like they're going to get 95% of the way through the design process and then give up because power delivery costs a little more.
If the ROI is there, they'll do it. If it's not, they won't.
Well yeah my point is the ROI is pushed out because of the extra expense of the install and acquiring sufficient electrical service above and beyond the cost of the new fleet.
No, but installing an maintaining diesel tanks and pumps ain't cheap either! Especially if you have to deal with any environmental destruction caused by spillage or leaking tanks (happens way, way more than most people think).
Battery swapping seems like it circumvents the slowness-of-charge problem, both for short haul (port and local urban service) and later for long haul. (Dealing with detours on the latter could be tricky though.)
5 - 10 minute battery swap vs however many minutes charging. Sure it reduces the load carrying capacity and/or range a bit, but it should still be viable for many heavy goods vehicles. Swapping makes it easier to manage battery condition and vehicle utilisation. Over time battery provision/swapping could be outsourced, so the transport company can focus on trucking, not on batteries and their needs.
>I see this all or nothing argument when discussing new stuff.
That's one way to look at it. The other is that you can't pretend that real, tangible, identifiable problems don't exist. And Tesla has a habit of ignoring those.
>Slow charging is only a temporary problem and as evolution of Superchargers has made quote evident to date.
What have the Superchargers proven? That under increased load the locations can become completely overwhelmed? Even with EVs having a single-digit market share?
I haven't met a single person in my neck of the woods that thinks waiting 30 minutes to "fuel up" is remotely reasonable. And that's state-of-the-art. We have a ways to go.
>In fact, Tesla Semi's range is 500 miles because it's right at the edge of how long a driver can safely drive non-stop and right before they are legally required to take a break, during which time they can charge the truck.
Let's wait for some real-world testing before making claims to Telsa Semi's range.
Tesla definitely has a habit of ignoring problems, but in all cases I'm aware of, they're non fundamental issues that can be addressed along the way. They see the bigger picture and aren't focusing on non-crucial details.
> What have the Superchargers proven? That under increased load the locations can become completely overwhelmed? Even with EVs having a single-digit market share?
I'm referring to speed of Superchargers increasing over time. Newer superchargers don't have the drop in charging speed problem when two adjacent stalls are used at the same time.
> I haven't met a single person in my neck of the woods that thinks waiting 30 minutes to "fuel up" is remotely reasonable. And that's state-of-the-art. We have a ways to go.
Well your neck of the wood aren't the current intended audience. Thanks to everyone else who's buying the cars at their current state. They are enabling a future where your neck of the wood can have cars that charge in a few minutes. Oh, and I'm one of them. You're welcome.
> Let's wait for some real-world testing before making claims to Telsa Semi's range.
oooor, they'll ignore the naysayers and make bank eventually, if they don't run out of funding before that. (Or don't go under because their CEO can be a raving nutbar sometimes.)
This. I purchased an EV for the daily commute ~3 years ago. A family member got angry and railed about how it was already a failed technology as they likely couldn't replace their f350 towing 4-wheelers deep into the woods.
Infrastructure takes time; and you don't have to solve every use case at once.
I am very pro EV...but a little concerned that the one thing we do (Hauling a 5th wheel with a diesel) will get legislated away or cot prohibitive before a reasonable alternative is available.
But for the other transportation needs, when I replace the 40mpg commuter, I'm all for it. When we bought the commuter, due to covid math, it was an $8k purchase plus trade. An EV would have been a $25k purchase with trade and I really didn't want to incur that much debt.
You should probably understand that somebody who uses an efficient vehicle for commuting, and a big truck for real big truck things, is utterly an outlier. Most trucks in america have never left the pavement, and the largest thing they carry is a 40 pound bag of dog food. The vast majority of americans buy the biggest truck they can get credit for and drive it everywhere at 12mpg, usually while boasting "It's got a hemi!" as if that even matters after 1980
There's a lot of anecdotal stuff when it comes to these conversations, You see the folks in the 7 seat SUVs commuting (that was me...but at the time I was also schlepping cubscouts a couple of times a month)...The SUV often got airport duty or the wife was taking her girlfriends somewhere....but during the week...it was me in one seat, driving 22 miles each way.
Also, the pollution is a massive issue in the cities, but a guy rolling coal in pudunk nebraska isn't a threat to the ecology, because there's so much ecology. I hate it, it's reprehensible, but it's leff of a factor...also, we're down in the trenches complaining about our neighbor, when the top polluters globally aren't the cars in the metroplex.
> the largest thing they carry is a 40 pound bag of dog food
No. Sorry. People do work with trucks. Tens of millions of people work in professions that it is necessary. More still do home projects or have hobbies that require high tow capacity like hauling an RV or a boat or other trailers. I drive an F350 to haul my fifth wheel. It actually gets 20 mpg when I'm not towing the RV.
You're misconstruing his comment. Not 'No one needs a Truck'. But, 'Most truck owners don't need a truck". I also will say I don't think anyone is talking about taking the option for owning a Truck away either. There will always be incredibly valid use cases for Trucks (and for a long time still; gas/dies. powered ones).
As you gave an anecdotal response, I'll respond in kind. I actually traded in a Tacoma for my EV. I miss the bed ~5x/year. I didn't need a truck; but i liked the option value. I'll likely get another Truck in the next vehicle cycle in a few years.
The vast, vast majority of truck owners use it in some way that a passenger vehicle is completely unsuited for. That there exist a handful of urbanites who drive a truck for the looks alone does not discount this fact. I see the trope a lot, however, from people who have never done blue collar labor in their lives. I had a Tacoma before the F350, I used it for camping and carried a roof top tent on a bed mounted rack. It was great, I never went camping more than when I had that truck. It was so easy and carefree to take a trip to the woods with no packing or planning required.
Those camping trips are why I <3'd my Taco and will likely get something similar in the future as the kids get older.
> The vast, vast majority of truck owners use it in some way that a passenger vehicle is completely unsuited for. That there exist a handful of urbanites who drive a truck for the looks alone does not discount this fact.
No one claimed otherwise. I feel like we've become a nation of, "This isn't right for me so it isn't right for anyone" bigotry.
None of you are bringing any stats to the table, just a bunch of personal anecdotes. And there is a lot of people in the US, no way any of you know enough people to make a reliable claim about what 'most people do' across that large land. But there must be some statistics on this, no?
5th-wheel + truck can be addressed with a giant battery on the 5th-wheel itself. RVs, camper vans, 5th-wheels, etc. are going to have a lot of cool tech and builds here soon.
> It'll cost more...
Yea, everything will. We didn't account for the negative externalities of using fossil fuels properly. Now we're starting to. You also have the rest of the world being lifted out of poverty and there's nothing we can do about it and we'll have to adjust to simply not being as wealthy.
> Sure, but you should stop selling your product like it can do all of those things and more. Its outright lying.
This is the response I hate. Detractors say that to argue against any adoption. It's not a claim any sane proponent (Musk is not sane and no one should listen to him) will make. Will it work eventually for (most) use cases? Yea! But likely not everywhere. Just like there are edge cases Gas or Diesel still don't work well. That doesn't mean to ignore potential where it makes sense.
I bought a commuter car. That's it. When I bought; was more of a novelty as I didn't know anyone else with anything similar.
I repeatedly got angrily shouted at while driving (in a relatively major city), coal-rolled; and heckled by strangers and family members around the dinner table about how poor of a decision I made. 3 years later; I have a nice/fun/convenient commuter car that hasn't needed any maintenance and the trade in is higher than I paid for it. Is it for everyone? No. But that doesn't mean there is a void in value.
I'd never heard of 'rolling coal' before. It's where you modify a diesel vehicle to dump fuel and emit a lot of smoke from the exhaust. As you might expect, people who do this to their trucks are very proud of it; it's usually a 'statement' against environmentalism.
It purposefully wastes diesel which is already much more expensive than gas. It's dangerous for a variety of reasons. It's illegal in the US and parts of Canada, though apparently not well policed. It's stupid.
Picture you're going down the highway not really paying attention to cars around you outside of general safety. Lifted dodge aggressively pulls infront of you; forcing you to spike breaks before it's engine revs and you're completely blind in a giant smog cloud as the truck spews all over you. It's nasty and some seem to hunt EVs to vomit on.
> I have a nice/fun/convenient commuter car that hasn't needed any maintenance and the trade in is higher than I paid for it. Is it for everyone? Is it for everyone? No. But that doesn't mean there is a void in value.
I'm sure you have reasons for downplaying this, but I would follow this with "and told them, in your face losers", or something to that effect.
Saying "saving money and hassle" isn't for everyone is suspicious to say the least. Why wouldn't it be for everyone?
> I'm sure you have reasons for downplaying this, but I would follow this with "and told them, in your face losers", or something to that effect.
Why would I ~ever mention it when it's somehow contentious? Family member in question has a truck that costs ~50% more. Why would I care?
> Saying "saving money and hassle" isn't for everyone is suspicious to say the least. Why wouldn't it be for everyone?
I never told anyone it saved money. I paid ~50% more for an electric Honda Civic. For my area/family group I was a new-tech adopter. I wasn't getting told, "You wasted money!" I was told, "That death trap will explode/catch on fire/not make it through the snow, battery will randomly empty, etc", harangued on the absolute basics on simple fallacies.
You are aware that manufactures face penalties for lying and deception, right? I can't recall Tesla ever being fined for misleading marketing, ever.
> Tesla semi was production ready in 2020
I guess you've never missed a deadline. That's not lying. It's miscalculation.
> and was more efficient than train
A Semi convoy is expected to be cheaper than a train and they re-iterated that in the latest event. No evidence to the contrary so far.
> And whatever other lies musk said back then.
Promised 500 miles. Delivered 500 miles. Turned the impossible (according to pretty much everyone, from Bill Gates, to CEO of truck making companies who joked that Tesla Semi will be breaking laws of physics) into late. Still not lying.
> Musk is prolific deceiver, I dont trust a single thing coming out of his mouth nor his websites.
He doesn't have websites. He has companies that have websites.
> Tesla cars are notorious for its expensive repairs. Its a huge cost and risk switching to it.
Is that why Hertz, that puts the most number of miles on a passenger vehicle has ordered 100000 Teslas, 20% of its global fleet, because it loves to waste money on cost of repair?
Simple answer: the thread has become a tribal flame war. It's not about the content of your comment, but which side you're on.
That said, negative karma on such comments is usually transient, and for that reason, HN guidelines recommended that you don't complain about downvotes. Such cases typically self-correct after a few hours.
In 2017 at the event he said they already had the technology to do truck automated follower convoys today (2017), it was only stopped by regulators. Seems like a complete lie given what we know of how their technology played out and even the single track tesla in tunnels in vegas still use drivers.
On Tesla's own website since around 2016 they said the cars could operate on their own but they only have a driver there for legal reasons (opening scrawl to the video at tesla.com/autopilot). Complete lie, the Nvidia stack and the software Tesla had for it couldn't do it, nor could several later stacks over the years. Regulators weren't what was stopping them unless they are saying they at Tesla are murderous psychopaths and would kill if it weren't illegal.
Tesla making empty claims on this is even more annoying since Toyota, which has a far more conservative approach to AV announcements, thinks this is near-term attainable for their Hino semis.
Tesla hasn't been fined by California because a.) the threat was a stop sale not a fine and b.) the process is still underway. I mean hey, Germany told Tesla to stop advertising autopilot because it was deceptive. But the only punishment that counts is monetary, right?
Some people are intimidated by success of others, especially if they don't have much going on in their own lives. And some people get excited and motivated by it and want to do more. Those would be the caliber of people who end up working at Tesla or SpaceX or Apple, etc and join the fun.
It's really weird isn't it, how at some point Musk became the new focus of Two Minutes of Hate[1]?
Sure, there are plenty of valid and harsh criticisms to make about Musk. I'm sure he'd even agree with a lot of them. But the level of obsession people have with hating him is clearly irrational. There's more anti-Musk sentiment than anti-Putin sentiment!
It's as if people were left feeling empty by Trump's disappearance and then latched onto Musk as the new target for their manic vitriol.
It may be that once these people have become accustomed to hating a public figure in this way that they have trouble letting go of the addiction.
It seems a lot like what happened in ancient Athens when one public figure after another would become the target of a citizen mob and then be banished[2] or executed[3]. It also seemed like an addiction in their case.
Usually the mob would quickly come to regret their decision, which is likely what would happen if Musk went away. Many of these same people would come to realize the value of having Musk around, despite his flaws, to advance space exploration, pro-environment technology, brain injury technology, etc.
> It's as if people were left feeling empty by Trump's disappearance and then latched onto Musk as the new target for their manic vitriol.
I've has the exact same thought. The timeline fits, and it's exactly the same mob of people. Not saying I didn't dislike Trump, but not spending all my time hating him on Twitter.
I will speak honestly and say that drawing from my own experience, it is because people feel duped.
When Musk came to public notice he was a fast-talking, confident, seemingly self-made rich tech autodidact who had personally created industries through sheer force of will and a vision.
He talked to a certain type of person who grew up with sci-fi and optimism for the future through technological advancement, only to see a disgusting anti-intellectualism and fatalism take over during the Bush Jr. years. He really spoke to me and I thought he was the real deal.
Then, slowly and over the course of years we started learning that he was a charlatan who's success was the result of luck, connections, or usurpation. He promises and promises and a lot of the big promises turn out to be laughably impractical or unrealistic to the point that no person learned in the applicable fields would take it seriously.
We learn about the subsidies that underpins the success, we learn about the terror that he puts his employees through, we learn about how he treats his family, and how he uses real people's lives and serious events as ways to increase his publicity and image with no concern for any negative effects on others.
The real 'ah-ha' moment for me was when he accused the British diver who risked his life and career to rescue trapped children in an underwater cave of being a 'pedo', because they didn't want to use his useless submarine idea.
And all the while, whenever he announces something, the fans and public rant and rave about a new revolution -- "vacuum tube transportation", "going to Mars in 5 years", "exactly like trains, but instead, cars!", etc. When we mention the problems with these ideas, and that Musk isn't really the best person to be advocating things that he knows nothing about, the fans retaliate with personal insults. "You are just jealous"... etc...
And then when he starts to lose popularity he turns 'free speech' and starts catering to a very unpleasant type of crowd (in many people's opinion). When you start appealing to the right-wing because your reputation took a nose-dive, then you are, um, "not a good person".
After a while it becomes a binary thing -- Musk == bad. I have to stop myself from thinking that way, but every time there is a raving fan talking about the new thing he is a genius at, it rears its head again.
> it's most likely that the charging infra is part of the package fleet operators buy
That inherently means short haul trucking which parent says is feasible. With long haul trucking, I’m almost never at a location owned by the fleet operator. Pepsi and Anheuser Busch may have long haul routes that are exceptions, but you can see from the other trucks they are buying they are doing a lot of short haul trucking. They’ve both also bought BYD trucks for the same locations that have a range of 125 miles, so they don’t need the 500 mile range for their activities.
Short-haul EV trucking in an area eventually leads to building enough charging stations that longer-haul becomes feasible on some routes, because charging infrastructure is several areas overlaps, or almost overlaps. This fuels (heh) further expansion.
Who has the financial incentive to build charging stations?
Both out and back and point to point operators will build charging infrastructure at their own hubs/terminals and use them for themselves.
You might see truck stops adding "public" chargers after that EV trucks become commonplace (in the same way that truck stops have fuel discount programs for member fleets) but how will EV trucks going to become commonplace if private operators using their own infrastructure are 99.99% of users?
Truck stops are thin margin. I don't see them making the investment without a need. Maybe if a big player (e.g. Swift, Walmart, etc) wants to convert to EV and kicks in a bunch of money to have their fuel partner make the capital investment. But I don't think that's going to happen until EVs are so good that it's a "profitably without nearly any doubt" type investment. You'll probably need to see a decade or two of short haul EV trucks and the accompanying refinement before that happens.
> Who has the financial incentive to build charging stations? Both out and back and point to point operators will build charging infrastructure at their own hubs/terminals and use them for themselves.
Don't forget that Tesla will probably end up building the most number of chargers over time. Charging is its own business with its own margins (e.g. Supercharger network). In other words, it's a source of net income for Tesla so as they build more trucks, they'll build more chargers as they've done to date with passenger cars and Superchargers.
I think in most states within the US, generation is a hard problem to solve because of state regulation. There are some outliers (Texas) but in general its hard to just start your own power plant thats connected to the grid.
Yep. Kinda like manufacturing cars is highly regulated. Or selling them without local dealerships. Or manufacturing industrial warehouse-sized batteries. Or building and operating an international network of charging stations.
They have a well-known solar roof program, which is generation, but home-scale.
Maybe a huge charging station which has to have large buffer batteries anyway would benefit from a large solar-panel field nearby / above it, if land price is acceptable. That would be a natural extension of the solar roof business.
Charging stations are cheap compared to diesel pumps, it’s not a huge logistical challenge, just some hardware, space, and an electrician to turn things on.
Chargers at truck stops can only be good for their margins, who would have to cater to people waiting for their trucks to charge on things they actually make money in (hint: it’s not diesel or electrons).
In the UK I imagine electric trucks will first be involved in deliveries between regional distribution centers on routes with known logistics.
I'm not convinced we'll see electric trucks take over the world in the medium term but I'm sure they'll be visible on our roads in the next 10 years, if only in limited roles.
In 10 years we will be deep into the decarbonization of transportation.
Maybe that doesn't mean electric. But if you can get 500miles today at reasonable efficiency then this is one of the really really easy things to decarbonize early. All you need are truck stops with good charging every couple of hundred miles. There are other sectors that are infinitely harder and almost certainly won't work with electric barring unforeseen breakthroughs (e.g. aviation).
In reality most truck drivers struggle to find an overnight parking space with access to a toilet or shower. Drivers work long hours and don't have any flexibility to just drive onto the next place if they can't plug in at one station, often only having minutes left of their allowed driving hours. The availability of charging stations would need to be far better than even existing parking spots.
It might not be impossible but it's not easy by any stretch.
Sure but even within the UK there are people who "tramp" in trucks. They set off on Monday morning and don't return home until Friday night taking mixed loads between premises and sleeping in lay-bys and industrial estates each night without so much as access to a toilet. They don't do 2000 mile runs but they still cover 2000 miles in a week. It's hard to imagine acceptable infrastructure being added to make this work.
Eastern Europe companies operate for months with the drivers living in the trucks. It’s brutal how money is made there. German highways are full of these trucks. 2 guys in a truck do 1000 miles every day except Sundays when the trucks can’t move on highways.
> That inherently means short haul trucking which parent says is feasible.
The parent put a weird disqualification on it that it will only work if demanded by the state. That’s a weasel word word of saying that it will be terrible and nobody will use it unless forced.
I don't spend huge amounts of capital for no reason, so why would a low-margin trucking company?
That said, if the price of diesel keeps up, there is a chance that Tesla trucks plus all the charging infrastructure will be worth it economically for short haul fleets.
I'm honestly surprised they didn't try to launch a truck in Europe first, it seems like a better market.
Rough math on this: $5/gallon diesel with 5mpg = $1/mile fuel cost. 1.7kwh/mile * $0.1/kwh = $0.17/mile. $0.83/mile savings * 400 miles/day * 250 days a year = $83,000/year in fuel savings.
I suspect that charging infrastructure is going to be expensive, but cheap enough that if an operator has multiple trucks, the payback will be pretty fast and the low margins will incentive faster adoption for short haul trucking. Long haul is another beast entirely (don't hold your breath for that industry to come around before well into the 2030s), but short haul should eat this up!
Just in fuel savings over the life of a truck that pays for those whole truck. Not the difference, the entire cost of the truck. Margins in trucking are too tight to ignore that much money.
Getting charging in place is critical, but nobody in trucking can afford to ignore that.
A little cheaper, but in the parts that are different between an EV and a ICE are very reliable. You miss oil changes, but most routine maintenance is still needed (though few people rotate their tires as often as they should)
That's in CA though - and at retail pricing. I suspect most customers will have captive chargers and will be running at industrial rates (so even less than $0.1/kwh).
It is pretty common for anybody with even the smallest fleet to own their own gas pump. Say a farmer with one tractor, or a flower shop with two vans.
In a world with gas stations on every corner, your argument would suggest this is foolish.
So perhaps the owners don't consider it a huge amount of capitol. Or perhaps they've found a reason or two.
But if I operated a distribution center where dozens of trucks were parked at my docks pretty much around the clock, I'd do a bit of napkin math. 1000 square meters of rooftop solar feeding giant batteries connected to 10 charging stations selling juice at $.25/kwh to trucks who are stuck here for the next hour regardless.
And I don't have to pay Exxon a penny and I wouldn't need a constant stream of tankers refilling underground tanks?
Hand me another napkin. How much battery do I need? How often would I have to replace the cables that reach from the dock to the cab? How much do those cables cost? Hmmm. Hand me another napkin...
The nice thing about EVs is we aren't starting from scratch either.
Most distribution centers, factories, etc where trucks load/unload at docks already have 3-phase power from the utility. They may need a transformer and service upgrade or for really large fleets they may even purchase 480 or KV power but when you compare it to the fuel savings its a total no-brainer. If you can save $50-80k per truck per year vs diesel that savings makes the EV trucks free. $1m for electrical upgrades? Sold. Will utilities need to perform distribution upgrades? Yes, but not all at once. They will do the upgrades as demand rises just like they do today.
As many others have noted in this thread it all comes down to your routes and logistics. For local and short-haul where the trucks return to a home base they are an excellent fit. Even if you need 50% more trucks because some of them are always on the charger as I noted the fuel savings make the trucks free so it doesn't matter at all.
It remains to be seen what the maintenance burden is. If it resembles passenger cars in any way I'd expect maintenance costs to be much lower since more components can be permanently sealed with lifetime sealed electric motors so no belts, hoses, bearings that wear out because someone couldn't be bothered to grease them, etc. Some consumables like brakes should also last much much longer.
Short haul, for sure. Long haul the truckers are independent from the place where they deliver to, and so there will be some friction - will the warehouses install charging or - like today - will they expect truckers to take care of charging.
Part of this is how the law catches up. In some states only a utility can legally sell electricity which means billing for charging is weird.
What we have today followed adoption closely, and that existing infrastructure is ripe for adjusting as EVs become popular. Especially the larger truck/interstate stops, that have Starbucks, Subway, showers, etc.
They will have to build some electric infrastructure, the way most EV owners do. The best time to charge a short-haul truck is while it is waiting to be loaded or while it is parked overnight, and both of those will need the operator to own chargers.
For an owner-operator it is indeed all or nothing, and these are more than 50% of all semis.
Stake his livelihood on a dubious technology or stick to the proven one?
Only a handful of companies run thousands of trucks and could afford a small scale experiment.
Package delivery is a different beast, the vans are guaranteed to spend the night at the base every night.
It will take a long time to make enough Semis to replace a large fraction of ICE trucks. So this will be a smooth transition where they are deployed first for duties which make it a nobrainer, like scheduled routes which are driven every day. As the market share raises, the usage scenarios will expand.
It’s hard to find exact numbers but it is likely that OTR trucking accounts for more than 50% of all miles but less than 50% of all trucks.
Many smaller companies have a small fleet of trucks for local deliveries to their branches, and some will be willing to take a look (even if just for the publicity, etc).
Which is one reason for team driving. One person drives while the other person sleeps. E-semis might not have cracked that nut yet.
But they don't have to solve every challenge at once. D-semis have been around forever and still haven't displaced trains. Obviously, they still have value. Where e-semis make sense, people will use them. Same for e-vans and e-bikes and e-tugboats.
And yes, people will still use d-semis and d-vans and gas scooters and horses. And clever people will keep finding ways to get the job done, whatever that job may be.
By "All or nothing" under the 'all' category, I'm assuming you mean huge government handouts for ev companies while poor people get to continue to live constrained to the market of a dwindling supply of used efficient and once cheap petrol engine vehicles.
Inequality has only become worse under the old regime of subsidized private technology and manufacturing.
Sounds like a case of needing to read up on history of innovation and how you don't get overnight mass adoption. I suggest picking up a book on advent of internal combustion engine and the five decades that followed.
> I see this all or nothing argument when discussing new stuff.
When did it become popular to start selling beta products? Did it begin when we all bought into social media?
Apple produced a computer, music player and phone that were a polished step up from what was happening before: build-your-own computer, music with insufficient storage and crap interfaces, and blackberries that only targeted business people.
Underpromise and overimpress me. Enough with this overpromising-because-have-to as if that's the only way to innovate or get investment. It isn't the only way and I wish investors would do a little more due diligence to get behind innovators who know what they are doing, not just throwing money at cool things saying they'll be ready by the end of the year over an 8 year period.
Outcomes speak for themselves. Tesla has had their timelines set back years and they're still ahead of everyone else in every category and their products sell like hot cakes. People who actually care about innovation and progress aren't pedantic about slipped timelines, panel gaps or hiccups, ESPECIALLY on projects that are on the cutting edge. If you think investors, most of whom worked their ass off to build their capital, are so gullible, over so many years, then you're not giving them enough credit (unless you think Tesla is misleading investors Theranos style - at which point, I'm off).
As for the whole Apple situation. If all companies tried to do what Apple does all the time, we'd be living in the stone age. Apple is an exception to the rule in that they're perfectionists in their tiny little bubble. Perhaps you didn't catch Apple's abondoned plan to build their own car. Did you hear about Dyson? Making an EV you can actually sell for profit is something even Apple, with all their money and talent, can't do and Tesla does like it's child play. Tesla has has the highest per unit margin of any automaker out there by factors of 3x and more. Apple does not hold a single candle to Tesla.
Tesla is about to overtake companies like BMW who have existed for 100 years. They already outsell Porsche.
And without having entered into major markets like Pickups, Semis and a number of others.
And they make their margin on EV, while many other companies simply lose money on EV and simply hide that fact. Or make minimal margin on the cars and lose money on EV overall.
Only a few years ago it was widely believed that you can't make money on EVs.
Another concept to look at for margin comparison is the fact all the other manufacturers are still playing the dealer network game. Lots of the profits on the cars aren't going to the old manufacturers, it's going to the local dealers.
Tesla doesn't have dealers, so all the dealer profits go to Tesla.
They are caught up when they start outselling Tesla (or heck become available so one can actually buy one).
Great cars (which I don't think Hyundai/Kia are by any stretch of imagination, from piss-poor software to poor charging infrastructure, but let's discount this for now) can exist at great prices all they want, but if I can't get my hand on one and the 500 or so that show up once every few month get gobbled up in seconds, they practically do not exist at all.
And mind you, the disparity in production is not gonna go away any time soon. They're all limited by battery production and unless they make their own batteries, Tesla has long been in the line to buy batteries from anywhere they possibly can, as much as they can. They don't screw around.
BYD is far more of a competitor to Tesla than Kia/Hyandai have been to date.
EDIT: and Tesla is no exemption here - once they have a Cybertruck selling in competitive "numbers", it becomes competitive. Until then, Rivians and Fords are leading the pack (and I must say, beautifully).
>>they're still ahead of everyone else in every category
Your definiton ^ ...
And, in terms of sales, that might be your definition of 'caught up' but it's not mine.
Well-used analagy applies here: if sales are your KPI then I assume McDonalds is your idea of a fine meal. Sorry, no.
And your dismissal of Hyundai/Kia by definition singles you out as far out there in biased land. I've test drove all three (including Tesla) and done the research. The only reason I haven't bought an ioniq 5 is because I simply can't justify it at the moment (my work-life means it'll just sit in the driveway however much I want it). But they are all ... great cars.
I'll say Tesla are great cars with groundbreaking technology, if ugly. But the Hyundai/Kia are now the better cars (interior, build, comfort) and the all around package. Again, unless you count "sales" as the definition of 'in the lead'.
*Disclaimer: I have a driveway where I can charge over night. If you don't have this, perhaps the supercharger network means something to you. That appears to be the only advantage.
> And, in terms of sales, that might be your definition of 'caught up' but it's not mine.
Good for you
> Well-used analagy applies here: if sales are your KPI then I assume McDonalds is your idea of a fine meal. Sorry, no.
Thanks for that analogy. Yes, one can brag all they want about the best Italian cuisine they had at a top bistro. It means nothing to most people if: they can't afford it, if they can't get a booking for months. McDonalds delivers round the clock, food that's safe and does it fast. I take McDonalds over all of so called "fine" food any day. I value my time and don't want to waste it, waiting on food.
> And your dismissal of Hyundai/Kia by definition singles you out as far out there in biased land. I've test drove all three (including Tesla) and done the research. The only reason I haven't bought an ioniq 5 is because I simply can't justify it at the moment (my work-life means it'll just sit in the driveway however much I want it). But they are all ... great cars.
I have driven all the above (some through friends and Ioniq 5 by asking a stranger nicely), in addition to BYD, Polstar and anything that's available to drive in Australia, multiple times for some. I've owned a Tesla for the past 2 years and have test driven every other model as well. The handling, software, ambiance and interior of all but Tesla (and specifically Model 3) is vastly inferior. As for handling, they all feel like they'll run away and off the road any moment. I'm sure I'll get used to them after longer drives, but Tesla's doing something there that gives me more confidence when handling.
If any of these was significantly cheaper as to make up for their shortcomings, I'd happily recommend them to friends and family. But as they sit right now, no frigging way.
> if ugly.
I don't know what you're talking about!
> But the Hyundai/Kia are now the better cars (interior, build, comfort)
Interior of all the cars above make me feel suffocated. Their build qualities are definitely good but virtually no one I know actually cares, unless shit's falling off the car. Tesla's quality is only getting better. As for comfort, Model 3 has the most comfortable seat of any car I've ever owned (out of 3).
At least with McDonalds, you know what goes into it. They actually have a nutrition label. Show me the nutrition label of the Italian bistro. If you asked, you'd probably get kicked out because you insulted the chef.
So, actually, I'll be way more confident about my health (that's what it's called, not safety, food safety is about you not getting poisoned) eating at McDonalds, than at some rando uptown joint.
Do you really know though? McDonalds has lied in the past quite a bit. For example, they touted their hamburger meat as 100% beef with no additives for quite awhile, then had to fess up when the truth about Pink Slime came out.
Then when they tried to climb on the vegan/vegetarian bandwagon, they had to quickly admit that their fry shortening had beef flavoring added to it, then switch to an entirely different shortening.
> When did it become popular to start selling beta products? Did it begin when we all bought into social media?
Since forever? You're comparing a new product category with already existing and optimized one. To keep close to the topic, think about the history of ICEs and cars in general: the first ones that got popular were all pretty much beta products.
> Apple produced a computer, music player and phone that were a polished step up from what was happening before: build-your-own computer, music with insufficient storage and crap interfaces, and blackberries that only targeted business people.
That's some pretty revisionist history. Apple made solid, polished hardware, in an established market with plenty of competition. About the only large leap they made was with the first iPhone, and it's considered both transformative and very much a beta version.
People forget just how basic (and sometimes bad!) the original of many things was. And everyone has an iPhone now but they didn’t all buy the first one, neither.
The original iPod was Mac only and FireWire, for goodness sake! People made do and it improved over time.
People want EV transportation because the world population is at risk. So they cut some slack to Tesla. Tesla makes compelling vehicles even if flawed. It's ok because it's a step in the right direction. Nothing wrong with that, or is it wrong to have ideals?
People want point of care testing, and everyone is at risk of dying of cancer. Theranos makes compelling equipment even if it is a little rough around the edges. It's ok because it's a step in the right direction. Nothing wrong with that, or is it wrong to have ideals? Oh wait...
The problem with that, is that “Theranos makes compelling equipment even if it is a little rough around the edges. It's ok because it's a step in the right direction.” wasn’t true, and that’s why Elizabeth Holmes was convicted for fraud.
Now, I’m not happy that Tesla is still calling the driving assistance software “autopilot” given some governments are criticising this name choice as misleading, but it’s not like the (limited and not ready) software is completely fictional — it can actually get people from A to B by itself, even if though it really isn’t at the quality level where this is a generally wise replacement for most humans, but only for, e.g. impaired humans in a medical emergency and even then it’s really only sane on highways (old story, but probably still illustrative based on the published safety statistics): https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/aug/08/tesla-mod...
However, considering Tesla as an EV company rather than as an AI company: it does what it says on the tin. There’s no secret gasoline tank hiding inside the batteries.
It was true. They had 2-3 working tests running on their machines by the end of the company. They sold over 100.
In my mind, this is the same as advertising "the human is only there for liability reasons" on an L2 ADAS system.
As to what Tesla is, the moment people accept that it's an EV company, I will be happy. The market currently does not, largely due to the insane promises of the company's CEO.
Let's not forget that Elizabeth Holmes was acquitted of defrauding patients. She was convicted of defrauding investors. What's the difference?
What a disingenuous analogy to make, between Tesla that has delivered time and time again and surpassed expectations, led the market for the past 10 years and continues to outsell all of its century old competitors, with Theranos which burnt investor money and never produced a working machine, ever.
"We want FSD some day and are working on it" is aiming high.
Calling it's driver assist Autopilot, calling its software FSD, repeatedly saying "FSD is coming next year" is overpromising, misleading marketing and lying
> Calling it's driver assist Autopilot, calling its software FSD, repeatedly saying "FSD is coming next year" is overpromising, misleading marketing and lying
OK, finally an actual example and the one I expected.
TL;DR is that if Tesla was in fact doing anything the regulators found to be hurting the customers, they would be forcing Tesla to make changes (and they have re FSD in some minor ways). It's fun to make a big deal about nothing but no one is buying FSD and thinking, Tesla robbed me $10K. They get it, play with it, it doesn't do what they promised, they can get a refund for the FSD package, and even a full refund for the entire car. People tend to keep their Teslas, so that's a non issue.
Majority of people don't buy Teslas for promise of FSD (in fact, most don't even believe it). They buy it because right now, it's a great car. As far as delivering great cars is concerned (which is the vast majority of cases), Tesla has delivered time and again.
Also, Tesla has never lied about FSD, only missing deadlines. If anything, their progress has shown anything but any attempt to lie to customers. They are moving as fast as they can and no one in the industry comes close.
I'll be happy to see, for once, someone talk about misleading marketing about anything but FSD. You can take FSD away any day and it won't make a blip of difference to Tesla's sales or margins.
Also, regulators are catching up to "FSD" in many places, but they work slowly. They are also catching up on the promised ranges - unlike "mpg," there is no standard by which the range of an EV is required to be evaluated. All of these rules take a LONG time to put in place.
As far as a refund on the package is concerned, I'm not sure you can actually get one. A friend of mine paid the $10k as a "line jumping fee" to get his car 4 months earlier, and I assume that most informed buyers treat the FSD package the same.
> The Model 3 sedan was being described on Tesla’s Korean website claiming 'can drive more than 528 km on a single charge'. However, on its US website, Tesla describes Model 3's performance as "Go anywhere with "up to" 358 miles of estimated range on a single charge." 358 miles equates to about 576 kms, and much less than what Tesla claimed in South Korean markets. After local media raised the issue and the regulator stepped in, Tesla changed the range from ‘more than’ to a ‘maximum’ 528 kilometres.
What??!! 576km is not much less than 528km, it's more! So Tesla was in fact correctly indicating that the range is more than 528km, because it is! Either this is awful reporting or there is a mistake in there. Also saying "can drive more than" instead of "up to" isn't necessarily an exaggeration, it may simply be a mistake in wording of the website. I give them the benefit of doubt here because I've never seen Tesla advertise range like that. It's often a single number with a testing methodology suffix (like EPA). There is no "up to" or the like qualifiers.
As for the second link, super interesting content. But EPA has certified the range and all other manufacturers are free to do what Tesla does to make their range more appealing. Nothing fishy going on here as far as I'm concerned. Exaggerating range in context of a certification program is moot (unless you're cheating and Tesla is clearly not, according to this article).
> A friend of mine paid the $10k as a "line jumping fee" to get his car 4 months earlier, and I assume that most informed buyers treat the FSD package the same.
Really? You thought this was a compelling example?!!! Have you never bought an "as-is" item from a shop which was on display. You pay cheaper but you can't bring it back for refund if you change your mind. This is common practice in every industry. You wanna be treated differently, you give up some perks.
People who buy FSD package as a way to jump the queue aren't buying FSD, they're buying time and as such doubt they will care about functionality of FSD.
I was referring to people who buy FSD for its current and future capabilities.
> From my understanding of US laws and human biology, no one can drive 2000 miles non-stop without taking multiple breaks in tens of minutes each. In fact, Tesla Semi's range is 500 miles because it's right at the edge of how long a driver can safely drive non-stop and right before they are legally required to take a break, during which time they can charge the truck.
IIRC the same was the case back when Model S was rolled out - the range was intentionally developed to be a little above the legal limit of non-stop driving, which to me provided a pretty solid argument against range anxiety: there's hardly a way to run out of charge on a trip and be a safe and responsible driver.
There is no legal limit for non commercial drivers in the US though? Certainly it's a bad idea and impractical to drive for, say, 24 hours without stopping, but not illegal?
Fair, I checked and it turns out I must have misremembered the legality aspect. There are, however, safety recommendations that strongly urge to take a 30-45 minute break every 3-4 hours of continuous driving, and - IIRC, that was many years ago - the model S range was more than enough if you followed those recommendations and recharged during downtime.
Most, probably 40-something, states regulate it either explicitly or implicitly.
As we know from many other subjects, anything short of federal regulation is roughly equivalent to “unregulated” for the purpose of internet hand wringing.
Typically the drivers attention drops after 2-3 hours of driving, so it is recommended to take a break then. The legal limit for truck drivers in Europe is 4.5h of driving, after which there needs to be a break of at least 45 minutes. The maximum total driving time per day is 9 hours.
While these times are of course not enforced for private driving, they are a good measure for what is safe. Yes, you can drive 5 hours or more without a break, but you need to be aware that this is risky behavior.
Well, it's hard to maintain 80mph in the mountains, it's also less likely to be very warm as you go up. A summer trip to Tahoe from where I live in the central valley is about 2.5 hours and it easily makes that. I am even close to making it home on the same charge.
My memory of driving Washington/Iahado/Montana is that holding speed wasn’t that difficult. Lots of opportunities for acceleration and deceleration. I have never driven a Tesla. Curious to know if it can handle my driving style.
Could it make it from San Diego to Anza Borrego and back?
Commercial truck drivers are subject to different rules. They used to have a bunch of problems, like taking speed and driving for ridiculous stretches. Apparently, the rules in the states are 11 hrs/day max w/ 3 hrs of rest breaks [1].
My mistake, well I certainly don't remember learning anything about legal driving limits- I'd be shocked if those were laws and not some agencies guidelines.
It’s actually kind of crazy that limits don’t exist as it has been demonstrated that lack of sleep is essentially equivalent to driving inebriated at a certain point. I suspect it’s only the logistics of enforcement that prevent it from happening.
Those whose opinion actually matter have done the math and put orders in to save them cost in the long run.
Of course, if right now, the load capacity or the range isn't applicable to one's business requirements, then Tesla Semi doesn't make sense. However, cost is often the biggest driver in any business. If a business can change things around to fit within the current constraints of the Semi, then they can do a cost-benefit analysis and Tesla Semi may then make economical sense.
Hard to tell, but given Tesla's historic record, demand for their products has only ever increased (discounting the current China situation which most likely has nothing to do with disparity between PR and actual product perf).
Let's wait and see if that's actually true. Tesla specs are a lot more "optimistic" than specs for other EV manufacturers (see the promised vs actual ranges of their passenger cars, for example).
While it is theoretically possible to use overhead electric lines to power vehicles on highways, there are a few challenges that would need to be overcome in order to make this a practical solution. For one, the infrastructure required to support such a system would be quite extensive, and would likely be expensive to install and maintain. Furthermore, the system would only be able to provide power to vehicles while they are on the highway, so they would still need some form of on-board power source for use when they are off the road. Overall, while this idea has some potential, there are currently more practical and cost-effective solutions for reducing the weight of vehicles, such as the use of lightweight materials and more efficient batteries.
> I wonder if they did some studies to convince themselves that it's a good idea.
They explicitly call out the research they did in collaboration with the industry and the drivers that informed this decision. All in the presentation.
The best metric I can think of is expected lifetime miles driven over total cost of ownership.
But I don't get why you think it's backwards! You want kwh/mile to be low. Basically, you want to use as little amount of energy stored in your battery to drive a mile. That's what that is.
You’re assuming that range is actually useful. There’s a reason Tesla is also producing a 300 mile semi, EV’s really only work for short haul trips anyway so a big battery is pointless for many users.
Ideally you have charging infrastructure at a loading dock between shore trips not along the highway at which point a 250 mile Escadia vs a hypothetically faster charging 300 mile Tesla isn’t really worth much without a much larger investment in charging infrastructure.
I'm not assuming that. The entire trucking industry keeps talking about how they won't buy low range stuff. Also, while batteries are still slow to charge, any extra minute spent waiting to charge multiple times on a trip is money lost.
EDIT: instead of speculating, get hold of someone in those companies that put order down for Tesla Semi and ask them why in their right mind they would do that. Then come back and enlighten us with their response.
Not quite, the long haul industry has ~zero interest in the 500 mile Tesla Semi, but that’s hardly the only market for semi’s.
Safeway, Walmart, etc are using semi’s for relatively short daily deliveries from regional warehouses. That model is very different from companies picking up random freight from LA’s port and shipping it to arbitrary locations across the US.
PS: As to your edit the list of buyers was exactly the kind of companies I described with long haul trucking companies ordering token amounts. Walmart, Pepsi, Anheuser-Busch, etc took a bigger bite.
Sysco: The food distributor has reserved 50 Semis.
while
Flexport: Ryan Peterson, the freight company's CEO, announced the company has ordered one Semi.
As a strawman, it should just possible to have a kind of "B-train" with a smaller, detachable battery unit just behind the tractor (apologies to truckers if I am using the wrong terminology). This way it would be possible to swap this out super fast. Maybe it could be at the back for faster swap.
Assume an average delivery truck driver's job is 10 hours a day. Assuming no time for unloading, that would be 50 miles an hour at the 500 mile range.
50 miles an hour is probably high for the average speed of an in-town deliver truck. And even if all it is doing is dropping off trailers and picking up new ones, that would be adequate for quite a bit.
And if the truck is stopping and the driver is unloading pallets, etc, then 500 miles is way more than enough; 300 comes into play.
You just assumed a brand new battery, fully charged, and then taken to empty in optimal conditions.
Nobody would actually use a truck like that day to day, you need slack for every thing from aging batteries to making it to charging infrastructure and running the AC.
Many trucks do only short hauls anyway. It is easier and less risky to develop a truck whose main usage do not already need a wide and extensive charger network.
I think it is more about opportunity than capability.
These trucks can all be charged with 240V whereas the Tesla semi requires a 1000V (mega charger) which isn't available anywhere yet. So these trucks are all contending with being far more practical.
There's a difference between AC and DC charging. All current Tesla's accept 240 volt AC and there's no reason to expect that the semi won't either but with the such a giant battery pack 240V will simply not be fast enough. The 1000 volt is for DC fast charging. Tesla's current models use 350-375 volt battery packs. 1000 volt will just allow them to charge faster for DC fast charging, and more efficiently.
To add to this, for AC, there is a conversion stage (ie inverter) that needs to convert it to DC to charge the batteries. This unit, at the currents that the Semi requires to be charged in a reasonable amount of time will be wasting too much energy in conversion losses.
Due to its inpracticality, AC charging is unlikely to be an option, but maybe they include it for those exceptional circumstances.
Existing Teslas can accept various voltage for charging. Obviously, the lower the longer to charge. Pretty sure the Tesla Semi CAN charge at up to 1000V, but doesn’t require it, while the competitors CANNOT charge at 1000V.
I read it as "requires 1000v to get the charge speeds advertised" - at 240v the trucks would all charge at about the same rate, and 240v may be what everyone goes with (though I doubt it, might as well install a dedicated charger if you're buying a truck).
In the presentation, Musk stated that the drivetrain is guaranteed for 1 million miles. I have no data on what sort of guarantees Diesel Semi manufacturers offer. Would be good to work that out. There is battery life and degradation as well to take into account.
Anyone who's visited TSMC can tell you drive unit failures have been happening before 100k miles let alone a entire million.
People have had back to back drive unit failures on new cars.
I recall a MS owner getting the run around about an impending DU failure (which manifests as a whine under acceleration) as their warranty was about to expire, only to have it fail out of warranty.
Now people are trying to DIY DU whine on cars that haven't even made it to 100k.
Running a DU in a simulated 1 million mile test is nowhere near the same as actually lasting 1 million miles in the real world over as many years as that would take.
The only thing that matters is the percentage of those failures before the 1mil miles. And that'll be a while.
If Teslas had nearly any concerningly significant number of drivetrain failures, nobody would buy them and they've been around long enough for people to catch up. I did plenty of research before buying mine and I follow Tesla quite closely. Haven't heard any concerns in this regard.
I expect Tesla to only get better for the time being.
We need to stop pretending like replacing one powerplant with another will change that. An entire generation of drive units are failing because of an issue the same boring issue that kills so many ICEs: Coolant getting where it's not supposed to because of a failed seal, causing lubricants to fail.
If you want a car that will go a million miles today, a "boring" base model Lexus is probably a safer bet than a Model 3.
> When people have to resort to this as the leading example of their argument, it's clear they've got nothing of substance left to argue with
Tesla and SpaceX are dependent on D.C. Elon was historically Teflon. Denying a gift to an opposition is delusional. It’s not going to tank the company. But it takes the good-natured response to his timeline optimism, and potentially re-frames it.
Tesla offered a discount in order to that people do not wait until buying in January when a new credit becomes available to people. And this is in a tiny part of the global market as well.
To jump from 'company offers discount' to 'company is dead' is literally the dumbest fucking argument I have ever heard. Seriously wtf.
Also they literally made record profit last quarter and are expected to make record profit this quarter all while still growing rapidly for a company this large.
Claiming Tesla is a dead company is really the height of idiocy. Like if you don't like Musk that fine, but really just denying reality because of that makes you look like very foolish.
Yes. This incentive applies only to the US. Only for December. Only on certain variants of Model 3 and Y. All thanks to people unwilling to take delivery in December due to IRA kicking in on January 1, 2023.
Superb! Thank you! This is exactly what I was after. Reading now.
Edit: The first one:
“Short via long dated put options” …
Is it not a conflict of interest for someone who is shorting Tesla to maintain an “elonmusklies.com” website? Or is the disclosure of their short position enough to excuse their bias?
Do you realize that claims about how the future will unfold are speculative? Why is Elon held to such an impossibly high standard when he makes obviously-speculative projections about what he thinks will happen in the future? Everyone knows he's over-ambitious and over-optimistic about deadlines, but why are we framing that "failure to accurately predict the future" or "failure to estimate a correct timeline" as broken promises and lies? What if we held all of us engineers, tech managers, etc, to the same impossibly high standard?
You may not have a dog in this fight, but these two websites are a little dishonest about how they frame things. Also there's a clear conflict of interest, because they're disclosing a short interest in the stock.
> Why is Elon held to such an impossibly high standard when he makes obviously-speculative projections about what he thinks will happen in the future?
It's because he actually makes these projections while all the other CEOs are tight lipped. Elon is also right on Twitter, loud and center. It takes rational thinking to understand that what he says are speculative projections.
If you've never seen the Sea Lioning comic, I recommend it:
"Sealioning refers to the disingenuous action by a commenter of making an ostensible effort to engage in sincere and serious civil debate, usually by asking persistent questions of the other commenter."
It’s sad that you think cliche tropes are a way to engage in civil discourse.
I’m not even slightly “attached” to Elon. That’s nonsensical. I just asked a polite question. He is as “hateful” as anyone else who has accumulated enough success to have a few enemies along the way. This thread was meant to be about the Tesla Semi truck a superb milestone and you felt the need to attack the CEO of the unquestionably successful company personally. Who’s being hateful?
Sealioning, indeed.
I have 20:20 vision, thanks. Not even slightly “blind” ... anyone can see that Elon is far from perfect. Has made many mistakes in public…
Anyway, as you say, “you choose not to listen”.
I chose to believe in a better future; because the alternative is grim. Elon is _building_ the future whether you and the Haters like it or not.
@daguava Next time your company puts astronauts on the ISS and safely lands reusable rockets on earth, talk to me about Elon not keeping his word.
If you are referring to current twitter moderation, this characterization is untrue. Twitter is currently banning, permanently banning (and then unbanning) accounts that did not broke the law at all.
IMO, this is Elon not understanding the market he's talking to. This type of warranty sounds great to general consumers.
In commercial trucking, it's more about the downtime. Making it to 1 million miles doesn't really matter if the maintenance along the way isn't easier. These trucks will still require tire changes plus maintenance to shocks/struts/control arms/air pressure systems/etc. Stays might be shorter, but commercial trucks already have processes for maintenance.
How do you know they didn't take any of that into account?
In every single field lots of studies have been done on electric vehicles of all kinds, including cars, trucks, vans and planes. And every single time, electric vehicles show that they are cheaper to maintain.
> but commercial trucks already have processes for maintenance.
And I'm sure they would like to get ride of as many of those processes as possible.
The standard warranty on a semi-truck engine is 4 years and 400,000-600,000 miles. A million miles isn't impressive, it screams "we're so far behind, we need to distract them with flashier incentives."
Maybe they can build up their reputation in time to pay for all the warranties. I guess it worked for Kia? IIRC that's around the time that all those "cash back" incentives became popular with the other manufacturers, before they jumped on the 10k bandwagon too.
Yeah - if I were signing a contract for these semis, I would want the '1 million miles' warranty to mean 'if the truck stops working and can't be repaired by Tesla within a week, then Tesla will buy back the truck for the purchase price * miles driven/1 million.'
I'd define 'stops working' as 'stops being road legal or able to drive at the speed limit with the rated load for at least half the advertised range'.
So a broken cab heater or faulty app wouldn't be reason for a warranty return.
I would obviously expect to pay a higher ticket price to get this warranty.
A new semi truck starts at about $100k on the low end. You can get the same level of service by spending $5k on a coffee machine meant for coffee shops.
Intrigued so did a bunch of searches for commercial machines and can't find any mention of "fix it or take it back and pay me for my time" terms anywhere.
In general, if you want this you'd lease the machine. Fairly common for independent cafes and restaurants (and those bean-to-cup machines in offices).
Though, also, the heavy-duty commercial machines are pretty reliable and service-able; you wouldn't generally expect to be out of order for a _week_ even if you owned it.
The promise of EVs is basically less downtime and lower cost. You'll still have to swap tires of course. Brakes will last a lot longer because they are not used a lot. There is no diesel engine to service. The drive train is the bit that is supposedly going to last a long time without efficiency decrease. All the rest is going to be similar. But it looks like some of the more expensive maintenance is going to be easier.
I'd say Elon Musk has a good product here that will likely sell very well.
I also own a Tesla. Over the 6 years I have owned it my automotive costs have decreased by some 80% compared to the ICE vehicles I owned prior. Significantly, the “no oil changes/no weekly fill up” costs immediately saved me around $2800/year. Maintenance costs have dropped to next to nothing, primarily being around tires and windshield wiper fluid.
There’s also no risk of getting a catalytic converter stolen.
What are your expenses that are so dramatically above the norm?
>What are your expenses that are so dramatically above the norm?
My comment about cost was in relation to purchase price, not ongoing cost.
I recently bought a 2022 Model S Plaid, and while there are certainly cheaper Teslas out there (namely, all of them), Tesla doesn't come close to competing with ICE vehicles on cost of acquisition.
I don't know what your situation is, but here's mine:
Got a Model 3 back in 2020. The service I've had to get done to date has been what's in the user manual: tire rotation, cabin air filter replacement and brake fluid check. That's it! No down time other than the few hours per service visit (for which they paid me equivalent of $50 USD to travel from and to the service center on each visit).
And I've used 90% Superchargers to charge and despite that, saved a lot on gas.
I'm glad that you haven't had any issues. I bought a new Model S Plaid a few months ago. Since then, it has been in for service three times, nearly all of which was for work that can be accurately categorized as "Tesla didn't finish putting the car together."
Examples:
There was a very large, very obvious gap between the charge port cover and the adjacent brake lamp assembly. Easily over a half-inch. I was dreading the possibility of getting 'in spec'-ed by Tesla, but my concern was misplaced. Turns out, Tesla hadn't finished installing the brake lamp assembly. It wasn't fully seated.
Rattling from under the frunk? Multiple clips were missing from the plastic trim, and of the clips that were present, many weren't actually clipped in.
Thunking sound from the driver side front tire on bumpy roads? The hub bolts and upper shock bolts were all loose.
Rattling from the center console? Tesla hadn't torqued down the fasteners that attach it to the car.
The hood ornament on the front comes with protective plastic that is supposed to be removed at installation. It wasn't. And it's not the kind of plastic that you can just tear or peel off. Tesla had to do that.
Did I mention that I found out - at delivery - that the new car needed a new windshield?
I have another service appointment coming up soon. The trunk floor was slightly crushed in (about an inch) where the floor meets the rear passenger seat. They would have replaced the trunk floor a while ago, but they couldn't due to parts availability. Also, some of the weather stripping is separating from the car, and it can't just be pushed back in place.
Oh yeah, here's one: after my most recent service appointment - for the suspension issue - my driver profile no longer existed. Good times.
There's more.
Somehow, I still like the car — mostly because it's insanely fast. But this is totally bonkers for any new car, let alone one with a $145,000 price tag.
It’s not eligible in my state, though I wouldn’t pursue a claim if it was.
I totally agree on the insane comment.
I also own a 2018 4Runner. It has around 180,000 miles, has been driven over some of the roughest backcountry routes in the United States, and has had no quality or performance issues. Ever. Just routine maintenance.
We need Elon to drop by HN next and clean up these mess of BS submissions that continue to amass 100+ points and not flagged to oblivion despite them being non-news.
EDIT: and maybe we should penalize users on HN who post these stuff too
I'm amazed by how HN just takes every piece of data at face value and starts reacting to it like it's gospel. News story after news story. This place is no different than Twitter, Youtube comments, etc. It's very sad to watch.
I agree that it would be good to have more than one source for this story, and some independent confirmation. It's true that often these things turn out quite differently than was initially reported, and of course the correction never gets the same coverage.
On the other hand, many true stories also first circulate online in this format.
@dang is there any way the title could be a bit more clear that this is not a settled matter of fact? As it stands now, the submission's title summarizes the tweet and presents it as truth without any caveats, but in fact the tweet itself is simply hearsay ("Chinese social media users report" etc).
I know we're all expected to click through all links and make informed judgments, but like it or not, the title on HN is very powerful in guiding the conversation. Claims like this need an appropriate level of skepticism until corroborated...
Yeah, this is bonkers. At one time I thought the collective HN BS detector was calibrated a bit better, but the willingness to accept this tweet at face value is troublesome. This is similar to the debacle recently where Apple was supposedly scanning for QR codes and opening canary URLs clandestinely, which turned out to be simple user error.
I'm flagging this submission, I encourage everybody to do the same. A tweet suggesting that "some users report" some ambiguous behavior is not news. Perhaps some corroboration will emerge and this tweet will eventually be proven correct, but the onus of proof should always be on those who are making the exceptional claims.
Well, although I tend to agree with the point you are making, in this case it is not completely out of the blue, single data point..
CCP is ruthless and has been repeatedly shown to have no qualms oppressing and killing people and abusing technology in similar ways. So the data point is not far fetched.
It would be good to have this either confirmed or proven false. Until then I find it a perfectly valid discussion.
> in this case it is not completely out of the blue, single data point..
It kind of is a single data point with a vague "users report"
Also, extraordinary claims like this still require more than vague anecdotal proof. If this is on device, can we see the request packet that caused the video to be deleted? Can we see the decompiled code that allows for such a thing to happen?
Right, and the tweet even has the disclaimer "Not sure if it’s from the cloud or device level". If it's deleted from the cloud, which I consider more likely, it has nothing to do with Huawei phones.
Agreed - I think there should be a huge asterisk over the source of data. Twitter reports are not inherently accurate - they need 3rd party verification.
If this is true - it is a concerning but not surprising maneuver.
The author of the tweet is entirely aware she is spreading unproven rumors, just glancing through her articles she's penned it's mostly propaganda pieces meant to support more aggression towards China (note: she does not live in China).
Here's a few choice quotes:
"And then came the laughable claim in Xi’s speech that China does not ‘carry aggressive or hegemonic traits in its genes’"
"The idea that Trump’s ‘China virus’ rhetoric is xenophobic is puzzling. "
Humans are stupid, buddy, it doesn't matter what forum you're on. Same dumb meat sacks, same heuristics, bias, emotions. We're even dumber in groups. Thinking you're smarter than the rest is proof that you're not.
This could be mostly rectified by having a free press in China. Another way to say it - the sole entity that could solve the problem of needing to rely on random internet claims about things happening in China is the Chinese government.
On the other hand, a lot of claims about China that are very easy to disprove - even with limited media freedom - are still widely believed in the West.
I'm thinking of two huge examples from recent times:
* The widespread belief that people in China have social credit scores.
* The belief that zero-CoVID was fake, and that CoVID was actually spreading like crazy in China, but was somehow covered up.
These are claims that can be disproven just by knowing people in China and asking them about their lives. Given how many millions of Chinese people live abroad, how many expats live in China, and how many cross-border connections there are in general, it's crazy that so many people still believe the above theories.
There's very little knowledge about China among the Western public, and there's a strong tendency towards conspiratorial interpretations of everything regarding China.
We are all here reading the comments. There is always at least one comment investigating or questioning the authenticity. I love HN because of that discourse.
With stories like these where I have known bias, I always come to the comments before reading the article.
Wether or not they can actually do this is debatable, but I wouldn't be surprised they did this if they could. I don't immediately accept it, but in terms of technology it seems plausible.
I see this all or nothing argument when discussing new stuff. Same thing was said about passenger cars and quoted as one of the main reasons EVs would never catch on. It looks like a chicken and egg problem until you look at it less idealistically and more pragmatically. If you watch the presentation (and I hope everyone commenting here did that first), it's most likely that the charging infra is part of the package fleet operators buy. They showed battery+solar backed Megachargers that the fleet operators are likely to be using for the near term. With this in mind, those companies that are currently buying these trucks in high numbers, are also definitely buying the charging infra with it. So with this context in mind, charging infra isn't a problem right now. And just like Superchargers for passenger cars, they will only ever increase in numbers.
Slow charging is only a temporary problem and as evolution of Superchargers has made quote evident to date.
From my understanding of US laws and human biology, no one can drive 2000 miles non-stop without taking multiple breaks in tens of minutes each. In fact, Tesla Semi's range is 500 miles because it's right at the edge of how long a driver can safely drive non-stop and right before they are legally required to take a break, during which time they can charge the truck.