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This is true, but I'm not sure it matters? I was poking around at the lichess database recently and those elo calibrated bots are remarkably well calibrated, their rating variance sticks out like a sore thumb compared to human players even at similar game volumes. So it should still be a decent predictor of how good a human at that level is, even if the playstyle seems alien.

I feel like every position is in the database so you could just lookup the most popular move for an arbitrary elo and that's the bot.

That would only work for the first few (from around 10 to 20 typically depending on how close people stick to opening book) moves.

Conservatively there are well over 10 to the 30 positions likely to show up in realistic games.

There are of the order of 10 to the 10 or so games recorded.

Thus well under one in a trillion positions are "known".


> Now, Tao is a sort of a celebrity of the quarter on HN, but I promise you that outside this forum, almost no one has ever heard of him.

This is an absurd thing to say. Hacker news is not the only place that knows about the most famous mathematician in the world. Glancing at Google Trends he seems to be roughly as famous as Linus Torvalds. Not exactly a household name but by no means obscure.


Go to a busy main street.

Ask 1000 different individuals if Terrence Tao rings a bell. If 5% or less can answer you who Tao is, it is safe to say that Tao is obscure.

I'd be very surprised if you can find over 50 individuals, out of the 1000, who can tell you who Terrence Tao is. Even big names like Euler or Gauss would surprise me.


I'm going to charitably assume that you forgot to include quotes around the names in your query, because that's absolutely not what Google Trends shows.

Stop 100 people on the street in NYC or Berlin or Tokyo and I bet none of them will be able to name any living mathematician. A few of them might know Linus, though.


Yes, it absolutely is what it shows[0]. I have no idea what data you're looking at that suggests otherwise. Worldwide or in the US, as public individuals or as search terms with quotes or without quotes, over any reasonable timespan, they get roughly the same amount of searches.

[0]: https://trends.google.com/explore?geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F047mjr%2C%...


He was specifically working on the Euler equations, which are the Navier-Stokes equations with the viscosity term removed. This is definitionally a smaller related problem. I'm not sure how you are calling that claim wrong.

Which seems to be entirely true by their own admission! [0] Both the comments about him risking his career and about Levent's authorship seem to have indeed occurred.

> 2) I never ever asked for Levent to be removed from authorship of his own work (as indicated by my text). I was surprised to learn during the call with Tristan that they had only solved Euler and not Navier-Stokes; after learning this we brainstormed possible paths forward. One option we discussed was that Tristan could be the lead author on a rewrite of OpenAI’s Navier-Stokes proof. It is in that context that I said “it would be simpler if Levent was not an Anthropic employee” because I felt it would be inappropriate for an Anthropic employee to author OpenAI’s work. Importantly it was admitted that internal Anthropic models had been used in their proof of Euler blowup; I therefore felt I could not consider Levent to be an independent academic. Another option I wanted to propose (but got cut short) is to offer access to our internal model so that they could try to finish their proof and bridge the gap between Euler and NS. Again I did not know how to navigate giving access to internal OpenAI IP to an Anthropic employee.

> 3) To reiterate it plainly: as my text clearly indicates, and as I said during our call, OpenAI's intention was to do everything possible to celebrate their mathematical achievements and the heroic efforts that they made on Euler. In the call I was immediately met with a litany of slander, including direct threats that if we were to announce Navier-Stokes he would immediately go to the press with a barrage of unfounded accusations. I refuted all these accusations but he replied “there is nothing you can do, I simply do not trust you”. I was confused why one would turn an incredible source for celebration (of their achievements!) into such bickering, which is when I said that I did not understand why one would risk their career [over unfounded accusations]. Genuinely, at that moment, I was trying to care for him and do a last ditch attempt to get a chance to give them all the credits that they deserve. I deeply apologize for this extremely poor choice of words, it is the opposite of what I was trying to convey. (I should say that I retracted them on the spot by the way.)

https://xcancel.com/SebastienBubeck/status/20973794116915163...


Hm. Looks like its possible everyone behaved terribly here unfortunately. :/

I remained impressed by ChatGPT however!


Everyone?? No, most definitely OpenAI.

But they have learnt their lesson, next time they won't reach out to who they stole it from, they will publish first.


Seems like OpenAI did a boring normal corporate thing (find out your competitor made a breakthrough, try to replicate it) and then when the other mathematicians found out OpenAI had beat them to Navier-Stokes, they decided to lie about what happened because they were upset they didn't get to make the big breakthrough themselves.

You are entitled to your opinion, but it isn't supported by the information already available.

The available information is essentially that story.

OpenAI's account: they heard a rumor that a Millennium Prize problem had been solved, so they tried to do it themselves and succeeded. Then they contacted the other researchers and were surprised to discover those guys hadn't actually cracked it, but offered the one of them who's not an Anthropic employee a co-authorship anyway. The conversations got testy.

Buckmaster's account: totally unsubstantiated accusations of plagiarizing from chat logs and plainly false accusations of OpenAI trying to get Alpoge removed as coauthor of a thing he was not an author of in the first place, and threats to ruin people's careers.

I think the synthesis is basically that Buckmaster and Alpoge had not quite solved the Navier-Stokes problem yet but thought they were really close, and had told friends as much, which is how the rumors got out. Now they're mad they got scooped. They aren't getting the money and recognition they thought they had locked down, and are engaging in a smear campaign.


I don't think your reading is correct. ML history is related with examples of models using hints from side channels.

If it would be possible to replicate OpenAIs success with a model cut-off earlier than the rumours, and without hinting from informed mathematicians, then we can consider it original. Otherwise it's indefensible.


By Buckmaster's own account, OpenAI (a) wanted him and Alpoge to publish their Euler result first and (b) wanted Buckmaster to author the Navier-Stokes paper, and (c) when he refused both of those, tried to get Alpoge to talk him into it.

Why would OpenAI go burn another $20 million trying to prove they didn't accidentally train on synthetic data derived from Buckmaster's codex sessions? They're desperately trying to give him credit anyway!


Perhaps out of a sense of academic good will, knowing that he got there first?

It seems like the timeline according to OpenAI is that:

1. Buckmaster developed a counterexample to a reduced version of Navier-Stokes with Anthropic employee Levent

2. Rumors start spreading that Anthropic has solved Navier-Stokes

3. OpenAI learns this and starts throwing a ridiculous amount of compute at it, now knowing it's within reach of LLMs

4. Their LLMs (with human assistance) get FARTHER than Buckmaster, using the exact same method.

5. OpenAI reaches out to Buckmaster to negotiate a fair way to publish both results and properly assign credit

Perhaps they simply and honestly feel he is owed credit. I can't help but imagine it at least played some small part. I expect that's what Bubeck is going to claim: https://xcancel.com/SebastienBubeck/status/20972141224714323...


The only problem with this narrative is that they refused to allow the other coauthor to be listed because he worked at Anthropic.

That is absolutely *ridiculous* in academia to deny authorship because of affiliation of the author worked on a substantial portion. You’d be ostracized because nobody would ever want to work with you again.


Because OpenAI employees kept leaking that Anthropic had a solution to Navier-Stokes and he wanted to figure out what was going on, since he was working on Navier-Stokes with an Anthropic employee. The rumor has been loudly circling the math community for the past week or so. For a bit of context, here's a timeline from mathematician and AI researcher Elliot Glazer:

https://xcancel.com/ElliotGlazer/status/2096298696438906934#


Then that's naive of him to write the email, he fell for their trap essentially.

The accused Sebastian Bubeck has denied the allegations on Twitter[0], and various other OpenAI employees[1,2] seem to be mocking another Anthropic employee voicing support for Levent[3]? Things are getting messy.

[0] https://xcancel.com/SebastienBubeck/status/20972141224714323...

[1] https://xcancel.com/polynoamial/status/2097215233119211902

[2] https://xcancel.com/danintheory/status/2097214838003138603

[3] https://xcancel.com/_sholtodouglas/status/209721833169057800...


Dan and Noam both posted exactly the same line "Seb is a really sweet guy with great intentions..."

From which I assume OpenAI PR wrote it for them. Which isn't surprising, but means it isn't worth taking seriously as them saying anything. It's official OpenAI PR.


No, they use that wording because they are mocking this tweet from an Anthropic employee: https://xcancel.com/_sholtodouglas/status/209721833169057800....

I don't know why.


That is even worse. Back to 5th grade I guess

Look at the President and the US government. This is society now.

Wow this is just bullying, it's insane that we are letting these people be in charge of the transition

Certainly a sign of the emotional immaturity and low empathy that's rampant in posters on internet forums like Twitter. Poor reflection on OpenAI.

I would imagine these folks are being treated like gods at their companies. And having access to all the money/fame. It is not surprising they see themselves above all

So someone can make public accusations of theft against you and if you publicly reply denying it you’re the bully?

I would assume they are calling the snark from Noam Brown and Dan Roberts bullying, not the somewhat bland denial.

I read through those tweets, and can’t see the bullying everyone is referring to. Mind elaborating?

They are mocking Sholto's support of Levent. I thought Noam Borwn would be above this but i think the cutlure withitn OpenAI encourages it.

seems to me the Noam tweet was before the Sholto tweet?

2:47 am (eastern time for me) https://x.com/polynoamial/status/2097215233119211902

2:59 am https://x.com/_sholtodouglas/status/2097218331690578000/



the transition ... to domination by our new AI overlords?

The elves left a long time ago, it’s difficult to see much virtue in what remains.

I assume this will make more sense in the morning, right now I’m just extremely confused. Noam never struck me as the type to be snarky like this.

i already have an extremely low view of openai and their staff, but this is lower than i thought they'd go

if I look at the timestamps, it appears Sholto is the one mocking Noams tweet... Noam posted first.

Douglas' 6:59 AM UTC post is edited. He has a 6:22 AM UTC post that predates Brown's 6:47 AM UTC post: https://xcancel.com/_sholtodouglas/status/209720900556759874...

Also note the lower post ID in the URL.


Doesn’t matter. People’s minds are already made up, and facts aren’t getting in the way.

Assuming that your mind is not already made up, and that facts aren't getting in the way, do see https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49608972

I hope they mock Sholto. Dude is an absolute podcast grifter/booster.

Interesting that both said “more tomorrow”. If someone accused me of something I didn’t do I’d be pretty clear about it right away.

If I needed to get my story straight, well, it might take a little time and coordination…


To be clear, Astra played little part in Buckmaster and Alpoge's work:

> We used several LLMs throughout: Anthropic’s Claude, OpenAI’s Codex, especially with GPT-5.6 Sol and, more recently, Astra. The latter was only used for writeups and auditing our arguments.


No. From the paper linked above [0]:

> The phase of free fall is predicted in a purely quantum manner to have a dependence m/6 g^2T^3/ℏ + gmzT on the free-fall time T, where m is the mass of the object, g is the gravitational acceleration relative to the surface of Earth, and z in the spatial coordinate in the direction of gravity. This prediction follows the calculated phase accumulated by an object accelerating in a linear potential, and has been made starting from almost one hundred years ago by Darwin, Kennard and others.

Apparently the phase shift is derivable from just adding a linear potential term mgz to the Hamiltonian.

[0]: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2502.14535


Seems like they just added a linear gravitational potential term mgz to their hamiltonian and computed the phase change it would induce. They claim they experimentally confirmed the phase change. I didn't think that worked! They also claim its consistent with some kind of GR derivation, but I haven't looked at that.

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