The big iffy assumption being made in your post is that any kind of foreknowledge of the outcome exists. In reality you're probably looking at survivorship bias at work. A thousand artists throw their output at a wall, one manages to stick and rakes in the big bucks.
If the same artist has several shits stuck on the same wall, it's statistically improbable that he's just lucky. White Stripes were not a one-hit wonder.
