"Over the next for years you're going to see a massive drop in the effectiveness and reach of ads in real life"
The good news is that most forms of traditional ads are only mildly calibrated to what purpose they are supposed to achieve. With the exception of coupons (highly trackable) an ad on a billboard for a new type of liquor isn't going to be noticed in non-effectiveness immediately. It will be a slow death.
"that will survive a while are billboards and even they will only last until we have self-driving cars"
Otoh, ordinary car occupants, if not engaged in conversations are more likely to be on a mobile device and not looking out the window. And maybe conversing with the driver about what they read on the mobile device instead of sitting there looking out the window looking at the billboards. Same with billboards viewed from trains (riders on devices certainly more than would be reading books or magazines..)
I look forward to a future where everyone producing every product and offering every service comes to the conclusion that product and service discovery tools are so effective that they render the concept of advertising completely inept and the only two vectors on which they can realistically compete are value (price x quality).
The good news is that most forms of traditional ads are only mildly calibrated to what purpose they are supposed to achieve. With the exception of coupons (highly trackable) an ad on a billboard for a new type of liquor isn't going to be noticed in non-effectiveness immediately. It will be a slow death.
"that will survive a while are billboards and even they will only last until we have self-driving cars"
Otoh, ordinary car occupants, if not engaged in conversations are more likely to be on a mobile device and not looking out the window. And maybe conversing with the driver about what they read on the mobile device instead of sitting there looking out the window looking at the billboards. Same with billboards viewed from trains (riders on devices certainly more than would be reading books or magazines..)