> It is almost guaranteed it will also introduce export controls on the models.
The current models are open weights and already out the door. They are hosted by many providers and are already comparatively good in many domains. Even if this generation is the last one to be open, I‘d argue it would already put the US providers in trouble
Also, the evidence isn't that China is doing anything magic - it seems AI is just energy + compute as opposed to any special research edge. There is reason to think that anyone would be capable of building these models. They're generic and every country will eventually catch up at a speed depending on how economically capable they are at buildign data centres.
I'm upbreat about China because they seem to be the biggest player here, but even if they don't come through I expect other countries will be able to put out decent free models.
I would argue that there is somewhat a research edge - there's no reason to think Chinese labs aren't incredibly capable in research though, look at all the recent papers from them on things like efficiency.
Naturally I wasn't implying they'll restrict the current models retroactively. Which either way trail behind even the universally available frontier models.
What's perplexing is people see CCP as some kind of libertarians while they in fact love regulations and routinely leverage them both domestically and in exports.
I’ve been asking myself this question quite a bit lately. People seem to suddenly think China is a good alternative to the US hegemony status. I sincerely hope I’m just misreading things.
I'm not American. And no, I think America is falling down even more, it is clearly morally and ethically bankrupt. The only thing it has going for it is money but I think this will decline too as goodwill is important too and Trump is burning all that to the ground.
The US has an open media and the western world internet is a non-stop airing of the US's dirty laundry.
China has only state media and little internet overlap with the west.
From the POV of your typical western internet denizen, The US elected a dictator to burn the country to the ground, while China is building
a utopia where the fruits are free for everyone.
I certainly don't see our european media to be pro-China. The Uyghur issues are major criticism. Also the way they treated their citizens during the pandemic and the protests.
Uyghurs, Tibet, and Taiwan, for starters. Taiwan in particular could become a conflict if push came to shove. Hard to say. (No nation will go to bat for the Uyghurs or Tibet, though.)
It doesn't change the fact, that as an European I really wish we had a better relationship with China and ditched US and their backward policies. It's OK to point out atrocities made by big empires, they are all guilty anyway.
As the US jerks from being BDFL to bullying zero summer, it’s not surprising that the abstract fears of china seem manageable compared to the new pressing fears of the US.
Why as a European be more afraid of a country that whilst you wouldn’t want to live in and which has supported Russia is quiet and selling you cheap stuff vs a country who used to be a friend who is now wanting you to grovel for a bad deal and is also supporting Russia?
See this is almost exactly what I’m concerned about. The ignorance to think that the US is “supporting Russia” (as if China bypassing embargoes for the exact same reason is somehow… better? Because you expected it and surprises are scarier than cozying up to enemies???) is astounding. China basically didn’t have to do ANYTHING while also actively having real literal concentration camps, aggressively trying to capture an entire continent through their Debt and Road initiative, and causing global instability on the internet, and useful idiots fall for the trap.
Does anyone have any insight into how we could potentially counter China’s propaganda? This comment right here showed the danger of ignoring it.
I am a careful follower of politics and don’t think I’m ignorant. And on every point you made I could rebut with an example of America doing likewise.
On your last point abour “causing instability on the internet”, for example, I could point out we are in a discussion about America wanting to restrict LLMs into haves and have nots and if that isn’t destabilising the internet by preventing non-American companies from defending themselves or paying American companies to defend themselves against them protection racket wise then what is?
Let’s take like 30 seconds and pretend America has all the same controls China has.
All Americans are given a social credit score. Trump can decide any transgender sympathizers are unruly citizens, unworthy of a good score. They are banned from taking out loans. They are banned from buying plane or train tickets. If you call them, a warning informs you they are actively bad people. If you are spotted speaking to them, your friends are encouraged to report your behavior in an app, lowering your score as well. Going down is easy, but going up is nearly impossible. You’ve outed yourself as a problem.
In the meantime, Trump has also decided to round up and forcibly sterilize every Jew. They’re pretty destabilizing to the nation as a whole and don’t really fit in, so it’s important for the stability of the nation. They are disappeared, sent to prison colonies, and given mysterious injections. International news organizations sneak in to try and get ideas of what you’re doing to them.
Online, you never speak of this of course. Not only are your comments tracked (affecting that citizen social score I mentioned), the propaganda you need to hear is tuned to you harder than ever before. It is designed to have a perfect answer to every complaint you have. If you fight too hard, a quick reeducational visit can do wonders.
There are like ten million more things I could complain about, but let’s just keep it to the most obvious, well-known stuff for now.
All of this stuff is actively happening in China right now. So, I apologize, but I cannot accept that you are “a careful follower of politics”. I don’t hold it against you, but it’s insanely concerning.
Do… you think trust and morals are disconnected? Did those things I wrote make you trust China? Do you trust China more than the US based on those things?
The US is quite literally famous for always honoring its debts. It’s genuinely shocking Americans that Trump is being aggressive in telling them they need to honor their agreements on NATO spending.
China also creates incredibly bad deals meant to use debt to capture nations. The US traditionally is not this aggressive.
But let’s answer your question directly, Mr. “Politically aware”
1. The US-China trade deal, where China agreed to purchase $200 Billion in goods. (Inb4 we explain away how breaking this one is justified and therefore doesn’t count)
2. China randomly placed a shitload of tariffs on Australia because they’re friends with the US. They admitted this was a really foolish choice and walked it back in the following years.
3. China blocked Lithuanian imports because they had a Taiwanese office
4. China gets their ass kicked in the WTO regularly (as do many countries) for reneging on trade deals.
So, Mr. Very Politically Aware, what’s the next goalpost?
If the Chinese models are open weight the after release you don't care about China at all; they could be running on a server in Bulgaria with zero CCP influence for all you care.
Consider it from a European perspective: The US under this administration is more unreliable than China. If Trump decides tomorrow that he's unhappy about something he'll pull some random other thing to bully the other side. You can't do business with that.
Rebuilding trust and foreign relationships is going to take a long time after Trump is gone.
I suppose it could be easier to approach a relationship in which the other party is simply known to be an enemy, rather than an ally which might occasionally take a left turn.
There are no Chinese military personnel and bases in Europe. The Chinese have not tried to take European land by force and China is also quite stable. It won't change it's mind every 4 years and negate international treaties that have been signed. I also don't recall China invading another country and/or kidnapping leaders of a foreign state in recent history. China also does not control the global reserve currency and can not unilaterally impose debilitating sanction on countries such as Cuba causing the death of thousands of innocent people because of some historical beef.
Yes, China does not have a good human rights record, they imprison a lot of political dissidence but then who are we comparing them too? The US has a 5x worse per capita prison population than China and a horrific human rights record.
What exactly bothers you so much about China that the US does not?
The irony is that the US is currently getting so much flak because it's leader is trying (and failing, EOs only go so far) to become what Xi Jinpeng is to China.
So if you want to put all your eggs in Xi's basket alone, go ahead. But if he has a stroke tomorrow and thinks China would be best off making pool toys, all your eggs will be smashed in one instant.
Most Europeans do not think about some ill-defined "communist threat" at all. The majority of negative opinions about China stem from economic worries.
Also FYI: the CCP has officially adopted the designation "socialist democracy" for themselves*, so I don't think you're going to bother them much by using that term. You'll have to get more specific about what you think their "democracy" should look like for them to start giving you the side-eye.
* Many places that are not really recognizable as democracies from a western POV do this. People, we have democracy at home!
You are off the rails. Ask China why they don’t like Taiwan’s political system, or better why they don’t adopt it to make the “unification” more attainable. The Communist party is everything in China.
China is an authoritarian ethno nationalist state-capitalist system. They are so far from anything remotely communist. The only thing communist about it is the name of their mono party
> They are so far from anything remotely communist. The only thing communist about it is the name of their mono party
They are far from anything remotely communist except by the one and only thing that defines communist? "Communist" has only ever referred to a political party.
Are you confusing "communist" with "communism"? The latter has held dual meaning, both referring to a nation under rule by a Communist party and an imagined sci-fi world where post-scarcity has taken hold. Obviously we remain far from achieving post-scarcity. However, nobody has ever claimed China has. In context, we know that the political party is the point of focus.
You’re the one who seems to be confused. When china liberalized it kept the esthetic of communism, while shifting to a state capitalism system. Communism is about control of means of production. China has adopted a capitalistic economy
> Communism is about control of means of production.
No, but perhaps you are now confusing communism with Marxism? Long story short, Marx and Engels hypothesized that capitalists would effectively withhold the technology necessary to realize post-scarcity. They suggested that the only way to bring post-scarcity into reality was to have the public take control of the means of production — a.k.a. socialism.
You are right to point out that being the foundation of the Communist party. Their efforts (on paper) revolve around the belief that they need to take action to see us find post-scarcity, believing, like Marx, that vested interests will stonewall the transition.
> China has adopted a capitalistic economy
You might say that is a move away from the Marxist underpinnings, but is not at odds with the Communist agenda. We nearly have post-scarcity in the area of food, and that has been primarily driven by American and European advancements, so today we have come to accept that Marx's ideas have not proven themselves. That does not diminish the quest to find post-scarcity, however. Communists (on paper) still have the same goal. If you look closer, while their system is capitalistic, the Communists still hold the reins to prevent autonomous capitalists from stonewalling post-scarcity.
You know, like as is seen in the original article. We have a purported transformative technology that can lead us towards post-scarcity being withheld by a small guild for their own benefit. Marx may have not gotten the exact mechanics right, but his underlying fear is playing out right before our eyes.
They pretty much like to confiscate your property and or force you “donate” your profit (see Alibaba for a very good example), make you disappear, enforce censorship and all that stuff very familiar to European communist regimes. They may be different flavours of communism but they all stink.
You literally cannot own land, there are no private schools, and billionaires exist at the pleasure of the state. They call themselves communist (to varying degrees, but they absolutely do). What a bad troll attempt.
Export controls are only a strategic advantage if the export destinations don't already have the same (or better) technology. That time may come, but first China needs to export to destroy the AI industry in the USA.
