> What seems like a great shiny achievement now may be considered foolish or irrelevant in hindsight
The inverse holds true as well. The Romans invented a steam engine and used it to entertain random passers-by in the square with a wheel that can move in circles on its own.
As for the slowing of innovation. No. I am fairly positive the rate of innovation is increasing at an exponential rate just like it's always been.
But you have to look at the nascent tiny scientific breakthroughs to see the everyday technology we're going to lament as "Based on old innovations" thirty years from now.
I mean, what use is a shaky three-wheel car that can hardly go any faster than a walking human could? You'd be better off using a horse, what a stupid invention and utterly useless innovation.
> As for the slowing of innovation. No. I am fairly positive the rate of innovation is increasing at an exponential rate just like it's always been.
The rate of innovation has not always increased at an 'exponential' rate. Why should it? No one would seriously suggest the rate of innovation has always increased since the year dot, in a proportionately upward curve. History has shown that we are quite capable are going backwards, forgetting previous advances, and and then relearning from the ancients (such as your steam engine).
From close up some innovation looks exponential. Take a step back and it looks like that exponential growth in one area is preceded by a breakthrough (or a series of breakthroughs), and the "exponential" growth only lasts until the ecosystem is filled.
Now take another step back. Breakthroughs themselves seem to be happening at an ever increasing "exponential" rate. Perhaps this is driven by increased wealth and education, which leads to a bigger population of researchers. In which case this trend may also eventually be limited (not "exponential").
But taking another step back reveals another trend: information is getting more available and searchable. And the burst in communications enables the formation of all kinds of creative communities.
I can't take another step back, but I can guess that it might involve artificial intelligences, DNA, and a broadening of what we consider a person. Maybe even the Singularity.
The inverse holds true as well. The Romans invented a steam engine and used it to entertain random passers-by in the square with a wheel that can move in circles on its own.
As for the slowing of innovation. No. I am fairly positive the rate of innovation is increasing at an exponential rate just like it's always been.
But you have to look at the nascent tiny scientific breakthroughs to see the everyday technology we're going to lament as "Based on old innovations" thirty years from now.
I mean, what use is a shaky three-wheel car that can hardly go any faster than a walking human could? You'd be better off using a horse, what a stupid invention and utterly useless innovation.